Prospects for Keeping the Peace in Southeast Asia

Read this report on the recent ASEAN summit by Jim Della-Giacoma of the International Crisis Group. “To its critics, ASEAN’s commitments to the promotion and protection of human rights, democracy, rule of law, and good governance are nothing but a dream,” Della-Giacoma writes. “But for [outgoing ASEAN Secretary-General]  Surin [Pitsuwan of Thailand] and [Indonesian Foreign Minister] Marty [Natalegawa], it is more a case of from little things big things grow. To ignore the flawed institutions, they say, is to guarantee they will never be all that they can be. The association needs to be challenged, pushed, and cajoled from inside and out. To these two boosters, the imperfect organisation they have served or nurtured needs to be given a chance – again and again. Their message is that the ASEAN Declaration of Human Rights and the ASEAN Institute of Peace and Reconciliation are the last pieces of a complicated regional peace and security puzzle. It is all we’ve got and it is all we’re getting. Let’s now try to make it work.”

Looking to Japan

Philippine officials are saying that they are looking to Japan as a counterbalance to a more assertive China, especially as territorial disputes with Beijing roil the South China Sea. Read this Reuters report. Is a balance-of-power arrangement emerging in East Asia? Could a “mini Cold War” emerge, possibly leading to conflict and tensions within ASEAN?

The Outlook for Cross-Strait Relations

Some interesting recent articles on cross-strait relations:

Douglas Paal, who is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, was the unofficial representative of the US to Taiwan from 2002 to 2006. This commentary was published in June.

Liu Fu-kuo is research fellow and chairman of the Division of American and European Studies at the Institute of International Relations of National Chengchi University in Taiwan. This commentary was published the Brookings Institution in July 2011.

Alan Romberg is director of the East Asia Program at The Henry L. Stimson Center. This paper was published by the China Leadership Monitor of the Hoover Institution of Stanford University in October.

A Business Pivot to Asia

In class this Thursday, we will have as a guest Curtis Chin, the former US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank in Manila, who is currently a senior fellow at the Asian Institute of Technology in Bangkok. In this Wall Street Journal essay, Chin argues that. while much has been made about the Obama administration’s strategic pivot to Asia, “missing from this shift is a ‘business pivot’—a more concerted effort to increase trade and investment between America and its allies in the region.” Such a move “would be good strategy, and good economics too,” Chin writes. He concludes:

A central benefit of peace and stability in Southeast Asia—which is a goal of the U.S. administration’s strategic pivot—would be to open the way for greater commercial opportunities on both sides of the Pacific. It’s time for Washington to understand that trade and economic ties can be part of the means to a strategic solution in the region, and not just the ends.